Start here · 4 minute read

What this site does, in plain English.

Money never sits still. Every day, capital moves between asset classes — out of tech and into utilities, out of bonds and into commodities, out of US stocks and into emerging markets. These shifts are called sector rotations, and they're the single biggest driver of which investments work and which don't in any given year.

Most people only notice rotations after they show up in headlines ("tech sells off," "banks under pressure," "gold breaks to new highs"). By then, the move is mostly over. Circadex tracks 79 global assets in real time so you can see the rotation happening across the whole map at once — not a single ticker in isolation.

You don't need a finance background to use it. The rest of this page explains the three big ideas that make the map readable, then walks through every signal type. Click Open the map whenever you're ready — it'll wait for you.

Market cycles & sector rotation

The core concept Circadex is built around

1 · What a market cycle is

A market cycle is the repeating pattern that the economy and markets move through: expansion → peak → contraction → trough → expansion again. Each full pass typically takes 4 to 10 years, though central-bank policy, shocks, and structural shifts can stretch or compress it.

Why it matters for a self-directed investor: a portfolio held blindly across all four stages behaves very differently depending on what's in it. The same S&P 500 index fund returned +67% in 2019 and −37% in 2008. Knowing roughly where you are in the cycle is the single most useful framing for thinking about what to hold.

The arc above: the four stages with typical sector leaders and example years from recent history.

A note on time horizons

Business cycle ≠ commodity supercycle

The 4-stage cycle above is the business cycle — 4 to 10 years, the lens that drives sector rotation. A commodity supercycle is a longer wave (10 to 20+ years) where the prices of physical things — oil, copper, food, mining equities — re-rate structurally upward. The mechanism is simple: when mines, wells, and grids are underbuilt during one decade, supply tightens for the next, lifting commodity prices across several business cycles.

Circadex tracks the business cycle directly (regime, sector flows, Compass). It surfaces the longer wave indirectly through two signals: the real-asset rotation chain — capital flowing in sequence from gold → silver → industrial metals → uranium — and the fiscal-dominance regime, the Circadex signal for when government borrowing is large enough to override central-bank policy (historically associated with sustained commodity-price pressure). Both fire harder when a supercycle is underway.

2 · Sector rotation

At different stages of the cycle, different kinds of companies do best. This pattern — repeated across decades — is called sector rotation, and understanding it is what lets an investor position slightly ahead of where the crowd already is.

Stage	Sectors that typically lead	Why
Early	Financials · Consumer Discretionary · Industrials	Rates low, credit expanding, consumers return.
Mid	Technology · Communication Services	Growth established, investors pay up for durable earnings.
Late	Energy · Materials	Demand peaks, inflation pressure rises, commodities benefit.
Recession	Staples · Utilities · Healthcare	People still need food, electricity, and medicine; discretionary spending falls.

The Compass view on the map expresses this same pattern in factor-loading terms — its four quadrants (Commodity bull / Stagflation / Goldilocks / Credit contraction) map directly to the four rotation stages, with assets positioned by their historical sensitivity to growth and inflation.

Grounded in

Merrill Lynch / BofA Investment Clock (2004) — the canonical 2×2 of growth × inflation used across institutional asset allocation.
Sam Stovall (1996) — Standard & Poor's Guide to Sector Investing. The practitioner codification of the US equity sector rotation sequence.
Fidelity Investments— long-running “business cycle approach to sector investing” research, the most-cited retail-facing version of the model.

3 · How Circadex surfaces rotation

Every number, panel, and view on the site exists to answer one side of the rotation question. Here's how the pieces connect:

Flow scoreCurrent position. Where a sector sits on the cycle right now — leading, gaining, neutral, weakening, or lagging.
RegimeCurrent stage. The macro environment the classifier has detected — the stage the cycle is in.
RatiosEarly warnings. Cross-asset relationships that historically move before a rotation is obvious (e.g. Gold/Copper rising = growth fears building).
LeadersFirst movers. Assets that historically move first at a stage transition — e.g. KRE leads XLF by ~4 weeks at credit-contraction onset.
CompassOne frame. The centroid trail shows capital's weighted centre of mass moving across the four quadrants — literally “the cycle turning”.

Honest caveat. No one sees cycles perfectly in advance. Rotation models describe tendencies, not laws — some cycles skip stages or compress them. Central-bank policy, geopolitical shocks, and technological shifts distort the classical sequence. Circadex surfaces the signals; the judgement is yours.

The three big ideas

Sector rotation

Capital cycles between asset classes — usually in a recognisable order.

A sector rotation happens when investors shift money from one group of assets to another. The shift is usually gradual, spans weeks or months, and follows patterns that have repeated across past cycles.

Classic example: when an economy is growing, capital tends to favour technology and consumer-discretionary stocks. As growth slows, money rotates into utilities, healthcare, and bonds. When inflation rises, it rotates again — into commodities, energy, and real assets. These aren't guarantees; they're patterns that repeat often enough to matter.

On the map, you'll see whole zones (US Equities, Commodities, Bonds) light up green or red together — that's a rotation in motion.

See the live rotation dashboard →

Regimes (the macro weather)

Markets behave differently depending on inflation, growth, and credit conditions.

Picture the macro environment as weather. In a sunny regime (growth + low inflation), risky assets like tech and small caps outperform. In a stormy regime (recession + credit stress), safe havens like gold and short-term bonds outperform.

Circadex classifies the current regime into one of nine types using live data — VIX, the dollar, oil, the yield curve, credit spreads. The regime label sits at the top of every page, with a hover tooltip explaining what each one means for your assets.

Regimes don't flip instantly — they shift over weeks. The signals on the map are usually pointing at the next regime before the headlines confirm it.

Open the map →

Cross-asset ratios as early warnings

The ratio between two related assets often signals stress before the broader market reacts.

When two related assets diverge, that divergence usually means something. If gold rises while copper falls, the market is pricing fear over growth. If high-yield bonds underperform investment-grade bonds, credit risk is being repriced.

These ratios react earlier than headline indices because the participants who trade them are usually the most macro-sensitive (institutional credit desks, commodity hedgers, FX traders). When a ratio hits its 5-year extreme, Circadex flags it in the Signals panel.

30 ratios are tracked. Click any line between two bubbles on the map to see what that specific relationship has historically meant.

See today's ratio extremes →

How regimes cycle

Regimes follow each other in a rough order, driven by what the central bank is doing and where inflation is. The cycle below isn't mechanical — regimes can skip, reverse, or stall — but the typical sequence looks like this:

01Disinflationary Growth

Prices stable or falling, growth healthy. The textbook 'Goldilocks' regime.

Often follows: Late credit contraction or fiscal-stimulus reset

02Late-Cycle Euphoria

Volatility crushed, credit spreads compressed, equities making new highs. Risk appetite stretched.

Often follows: Disinflationary growth running long

03Inflation

Prices rising broadly. Commodities, energy, and inflation-linked assets lead.

Often follows: Late euphoria meeting a supply or demand shock

04Stagflation

Slow growth combined with high inflation. Most asset classes under pressure.

Often follows: Inflation persisting while growth fades

05Geopolitical-Shock Stagflation

A geopolitical event (war, embargo) drives a supply shock that locks in stagflation.

Often follows: An external shock during inflation or stagflation

06Credit Contraction

Lending tightens, spreads widen, banks pull back. Risk assets sell off.

Often follows: Stagflation forcing aggressive rate hikes

07Correction / Rotation

Risk assets sell off; capital rotates into defensives and cash. Not yet a recession.

Often follows: The first leg of credit contraction

08Fiscal Dominance

Government spending props up growth; central banks lose primacy. Equities and commodities can hold up.

Often follows: Recovery from credit contraction with high debt

09Fiscal-Dominance Rotation

Capital rotates into sectors benefitting from government spending (defence, energy, infrastructure).

Often follows: Fiscal dominance maturing

The current regime is shown in the top-left of every page. Hover it for the plain-English description.

What you can do here

The Flow Map

An interactive map of 79 global assets — equities, bonds, commodities, currencies, and crypto. Each node shows whether capital is flowing in (green) or out (red). Nodes cluster by asset class so rotations are visible at a glance.

The Context Engine

Explains why money is moving. Ratio signals flag when asset relationships hit historical extremes. Regime classification tells you the macro environment you're in. Geopolitical events show where disruption is concentrated.

Your Position

Track your portfolio alongside global flows. See whether your holdings are aligned with or against current momentum — before the move becomes obvious.

How to read this

Flow Score-100 to +100

Flow score: price-implied capital momentum. +100 = maximum inflow, −100= maximum outflow. Based on 1-week returns (40%), 4-week returns (30%), and relative sector performance (30%), percentile-ranked against 5 years of the asset's own history.

−100−30lagging0+30leading+100

How to read it

+93US Semiconductors is leading its equity peer set — top percentile against 5 years of history.
+10EU Industrials on the positive side but nowhere near extreme — worth watching where it moves next.
−82US Energy one of the weakest assets in its peer group over the last ~month.

What it isn't

Not literal ETF share-creation / redemption data (enterprise-priced and lagged).
Not a prediction — describes what has already happened.
Not a buy or sell signal.

Grounded in

Jegadeesh & Titman (1993) — Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers, Journal of Finance. The foundational empirical paper on price momentum.
Asness, Moskowitz, Pedersen (2013) — Value and Momentum Everywhere, Journal of Finance. Cross-sectional momentum across asset classes.
Mansfield Relative Strength — classic practitioner overlay of price vs benchmark.
IBD Relative Strength Rating— Investor's Business Daily's 1–99 price-performance ranking; the retail-familiar analogue of our −100 / +100 scale.
Dorsey Wright RS Matrix — widely used institutional RS tool.

Limitations

Supply shocks and forced selling can produce momentum without reflecting capital preference.
Short-term reversal is a real risk near extremes (mean-reversion).
The 5-year history window means regimes that predate it aren't in the percentile calibration.

Regime9 types

A regime is an algorithmic classification of the current macro environment based on inflation, growth, credit conditions, and geopolitical signals. Circadex identifies 9 regime types:

Disinflationary GrowthGrowth slowing, inflation falling — historically favours bonds and quality equities.
InflationRising prices, supply or demand driven — commodities, energy, and inflation-linked assets tend to outperform.
StagflationSlow growth + high inflation — most asset classes under pressure; commodities are partial hedges.
Credit ContractionCredit tightening, spreads widening — risk assets under pressure; cash and short-duration bonds favoured.
Fiscal DominanceGovernment spending driving growth — equities and commodities can hold up despite tight monetary policy.
Late-Cycle EuphoriaLate expansion, compressed risk premiums, low volatility — equities leading but fragility building underneath.
Correction / RotationRisk assets selling off, capital rotating into defensives and safe havens.
Fiscal Dominance RotationFiscal stimulus-driven rotation — capital moving into sectors benefiting from government spending.
Geopolitical Shock StagflationGeopolitical disruption causing supply shocks — safe havens and energy in focus; broad risk-off.

How the classification works

Each snapshot runs through a transparent rule-based scorer. Every regime has a list of signals (e.g. VIX > 25, HY spread > 5%, yield curve inverted) that add weighted points. The regime with the highest normalised score wins; confidence is high when the gap to runner-up is large, low when regimes are close. The full rule logic lives in the open at src/lib/pipeline/classifyRegime.ts.

Grounded in

Dalio (Bridgewater) — “All Weather” framework & Merrill/BofA Investment Clock. The underlying 2×2 of growth × inflation environments that every regime maps into.
Estrella & Mishkin (1998) — Predicting U.S. Recessions: Financial Variables as Leading Indicators. Yield-curve inversion as the most robust single recession predictor.
Ang & Bekaert (2002) — Regime Switches in Interest Rates. VIX + rate dynamics as regime-distinguishing variables.
Gilchrist & Zakrajšek (2012) — Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations, American Economic Review. HY credit spread as a business-cycle / credit-stress signal.
Sargent & Wallace (1981) / Leeper (1991) — foundational fiscal-dominance literature. Defines when fiscal policy drives the monetary/inflation regime.
Minsky (1986) — Stabilizing an Unstable Economy; Kindleberger — Manias, Panics, and Crashes. Late-cycle euphoria & credit-fragility peaks.
Blanchard & Galí (2007) — stagflation / supply-shock regime analysis.

What Circadex adds on top

The specific 9-regime taxonomy, including sub-divisions (geopolitical-shock stagflation, fiscal-dominance rotation, correction-rotation distinct from credit contraction). Standard frameworks stop at 4; we widen the catalogue for retail legibility.
Numeric thresholds (e.g. “VIX > 25 scores 25 points for the geopolitical regime”). These are calibrated against historical ranges but are our judgement, not a published method.
The rule-based weighted-scoring architecture itself. Most academic work uses Markov-switching models; we chose transparent rules so users can audit exactly why a regime was assigned. Source in the repo.

Limitations

Rules are static. If macro structure changes in ways we didn't anticipate, the classifier may mis-label. Thresholds are reviewed periodically.
Regimes may lag real-time conditions. The classifier reads the current snapshot; turning-points show up in the data only after they've moved variables past thresholds.
Regime classifications are descriptive. They name a historical pattern the market is behaving like; they are not predictions of future returns.

Ratio Extremepercentile rank

A ratio edge tracks the price relationship between two assets — for example, Gold vs Copper, or High-Yield bonds vs Investment-Grade bonds. The ratio value is ranked against its own 5-year history to produce a percentile.

A ratio at the 90th percentile or above is flagged as an extreme high — historically unusual. A ratio at the 10th percentile or below is flagged as an extreme low. Extremes have historically preceded mean-reversion, but are not guaranteed to do so.

How to read a ratio extreme — three layers

SHOWWhat the number means descriptively — which asset is outperforming which, and by how much vs its own 5-year range.
CONTEXTWhat has historically tended to follow readings at this level — with honest caveats (sample size, window, hit rate). Not a forecast.
ASK2–3 prompts the reader should ask themselves. Questions, not instructions.

Circadex surfaces patterns and questions. It doesn't tell you what to do — that's your call, and your responsibility.

Contagion Chainmulti-stage

A contagion chain models a sequence of historically correlated asset moves — for example, an oil shock that flows through energy costs, to food prices, to emerging market stress.

Stages are tracked as they activate. This is a pattern-recognition tool based on historical correlations, not a causal model. Not all chains complete in sequence, and historical patterns may not repeat.

Leading Indicatordivergence signal

Certain assets have historically moved before related assets — the leading asset tends to anticipate the direction of the lagging asset by a number of weeks. Circadex tracks 13 such pairs.

When a leader and lagger show strong divergence in flow scores, it is flagged as a signal worth watching. Historical lead times are approximate and vary across market cycles.

Rotation Sequencecommodity cycle

In commodity bull markets, capital has historically flowed through sectors in a roughly sequential order: Oil/Energy → Natural Gas → Fertilisers → Grains → Coal → Uranium → Industrial Metals → Silver → Gold. Earlier sectors tend to peak before later ones begin.

The rotation sequence bar on the Sector Rotation page shows where current capital flows sit in this historical pattern. Segments are coloured by each commodity's live flow score. This is a pattern-recognition model, not a prediction — sequences may skip, reverse, or stall.

Secular Signals5 indicators

Secular signals identify structural macro shifts that persist for years rather than months. Circadex tracks 5 such indicators: Real Assets vs Financial Assets, International vs US, Small vs Large Cap, Commodities vs Tech, and Dollar Weakness.

Each signal compares average flow scores between two groups of assets. When more secular signals are active, it suggests a structural regime shift (e.g., from financial-asset dominance to real-asset dominance) rather than a short-term cyclical rotation.

Glossary

VIXThe CBOE Volatility Index. Measures expected market turbulence over the next 30 days based on S&P 500 options pricing. Often called the 'fear index'. Below 15 = calm. 15–25 = elevated. Above 25 = stress or fear.

DXYUS Dollar Index. Tracks the strength of the US dollar against a basket of six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF). A rising DXY pressures emerging markets and dollar-denominated commodities.

US10YUS 10-year Treasury yield. The interest rate the US government pays on 10-year debt. A rising yield signals increasing borrowing costs, which typically pressures long-duration assets like growth stocks and long bonds.

Oil (WTI)West Texas Intermediate crude oil price in USD per barrel. A key input cost across the economy. Prices above $80 historically strain consumer spending and corporate margins.

GoldGold spot price in USD per troy ounce. Widely used as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset. Rising gold prices often signal inflation concerns or risk-off sentiment in broader markets.

BTCBitcoin price in USD. Tracked here as a risk-on and liquidity proxy — Bitcoin has historically moved in line with broad risk appetite, similar to growth equities, rather than as a safe haven.

Net LiquidityFederal Reserve net liquidity measures the amount of money available in the financial system. Expanding = more money entering the system, historically positive for risk assets. Contracting = tightening conditions.

Flow ScoreCircadex's price-implied measure of capital momentum. Ranges from −100 (maximum outflow) to +100 (maximum inflow). Computed from short and medium-term price returns, normalised against historical percentiles. Not a prediction or recommendation.

RegimeAn algorithmic classification of the current macro environment. Circadex identifies 9 regimes based on inflation, growth, credit, and geopolitical signals. Each regime has historically been associated with different asset class performance patterns.

Percentile RankA measure of where a current value sits relative to its own historical range. A 90th percentile reading means the current value is higher than 90% of all readings in the past 5 years. Used for ratio extremes.

Ratio EdgeA tracked price ratio between two related assets — for example, Gold vs Copper (a risk appetite indicator). When a ratio hits a historical extreme (top or bottom 10% of its 5-year range), it is flagged as a signal.

Contagion ChainA multi-stage sequence of historically correlated asset stress events — for example, an energy shock flowing through to food prices and then to emerging market debt. Stages are tracked as they activate.

Leading IndicatorAn asset that has historically moved before a related asset — the 'leader' tends to anticipate the direction of the 'lagger' by several weeks. Divergence between leader and lagger is tracked as a signal.

ChokepointA node that sits at a structural bottleneck in global supply chains or capital flows — such as oil (Hormuz), fertiliser (ammonia), or semiconductor supply (Taiwan). Stress at a chokepoint can propagate broadly.

HY / IG CreditHigh Yield (HY) bonds are issued by companies with higher default risk — they pay higher interest to compensate. Investment Grade (IG) bonds are from more creditworthy issuers. The ratio between HY and IG prices signals how much credit risk investors are willing to take on.

Blast RadiusIn Circadex, the assets most likely to be affected if a chokepoint comes under stress. For example, if oil supply is disrupted, the blast radius includes energy equities, fertilisers, and emerging market currencies that depend on cheap energy imports.

Bullish / BearishBullish means expecting prices to rise or risk appetite to be high. Bearish means expecting prices to fall or preferring safety. Used to describe the direction of a leading indicator signal — e.g. a 'bearish gap' means a leader asset has sold off but the lagger hasn't caught up yet.

Rotation SequenceA historical pattern where capital flows through commodity sectors in a roughly predictable order during bull markets — energy first, precious metals last. Circadex tracks 9 commodity nodes in this sequence to show where in the cycle capital is currently concentrated.

Secular RegimeA long-duration (multi-year) macro trend — e.g. real assets outperforming financial assets, or international outperforming US. Distinguished from cyclical (months-long) rotations. Circadex tracks 5 secular indicators to measure structural vs cyclical conviction.

AUD/USDAustralian dollar vs US dollar exchange rate. Because Australia's economy is heavily commodity-export dependent, AUD strength is widely used as a proxy for Chinese industrial demand and global commodity cycle health.

Brent/WTIThe price ratio between Brent crude (international benchmark) and WTI crude (US benchmark). Normally trades near parity with a small Brent premium. A widening spread signals geographic supply disruption — sanctions, war, or Hormuz risk.

AlgorithmicA rule the computer runs automatically, with no human judgement inside. When Circadex says a score, ratio, or regime is 'algorithmic', it means you can read the exact rule in the source code — there's no analyst opinion baked in. The upside: reproducible and auditable. The limit: rules are only as smart as the assumptions behind them.

Consumer DiscretionaryCompanies selling things people buy when they feel confident: cars, restaurants, travel, luxury goods, home renovations. Discretionary spending rises in expansions and falls first in downturns — so this sector is a classic early-cycle leader.

Consumer StaplesCompanies selling things people buy regardless: food, household products, toiletries, basic medicine. Demand is stable across the cycle, which is why this sector typically holds up best in recessions. 'Discretionary leading staples' means investors are choosing the more-optional over the more-defensive — a sign of risk appetite.

Sector RotationThe pattern where capital moves between sectors as the market cycle progresses. Early cycle: financials and discretionary lead. Mid cycle: technology. Late cycle: energy and materials. Recession: staples, utilities, healthcare. See the full explainer at /learn#market-cycles.

Market CycleThe repeating pattern of expansion → peak → contraction → trough that the economy and markets move through, usually over 4–10 years. Different sectors lead at different stages. Understanding where you are in the cycle is the core analytical question Circadex is built around.

Disclaimer

Circadex is an incubation project of Daliah Group B.V. — a market-intelligence tool that aggregates publicly available price and macroeconomic data to identify patterns in capital flows. It does not provide investment advice, recommendations, or signals of any kind. Full legal terms are in the Terms of Service.

Flow scores and regime classifications are algorithmic outputs derived from price data — they reflect observed historical patterns, not predictions of future performance. Past patterns do not guarantee future results.

Circadex is not a licensed financial advisor, broker, or investment manager. Nothing on this platform constitutes investment advice under MiFID II, the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000, or any other regulatory framework.

AI-generated content (weekly briefings) is clearly labelled. It is produced for informational purposes only and must not be construed as advice. This platform complies with EU AI Act Article 52 transparency requirements for AI-generated content.

Data sources: Yahoo Finance, FRED (Federal Reserve), CoinGecko, GDELT. Data may be delayed, incomplete, or inaccurate. Daliah Group B.V. accepts no liability for decisions made on the basis of information presented on this platform.

Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

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